Economics of AISep 2026 Two Tiers of Model Intelligence Frontier capability inelastic to cost versus commoditized task intelligence competing on price, and what that split means for lab capex. With the live Cost x Capability Frontier from Theseus Capital. Read Economics of AISep 2026 Open-Source Models and the AI Revenue Squeeze Open weights probably will not kill compute demand. They squeeze what each unit of compute earns, while the debt and leases that paid for it stay fixed. A memo, with the charts rebuilt live. Read Economics of AIAug 2026 Working Concept: Neo-Institutionalization Where value accrues once agents reliably produce economic output: to the intelligence provider and the institution that adopts it, with the application layer squeezed out. Includes the live AI Economic Viability Frontier. Read Economics of AIAug 2026 Token Cost per Economically Viable Output A primitive for measuring AI's economic impact: for which outputs has expected production cost fallen below willingness to pay, and how fast is that frontier moving? Read Minds & MachinesJul 2026 Retrieval as Belief Propagation A Theseus Labs research note on grounding an investment agent's decisions in an explicit, internally consistent set of beliefs. Retrieval is treated as a physical process: a query injects activation into a typed graph of principles, it spreads and decays along weighted edges, and contradictory edges carry negative conductance so incoherent branches cancel before they reach the model. What survives is a small, self-explaining chain of beliefs, grounded in market data and projected forward by simulation. Theseus Holdings Institutions & ProgressJun 2026 On Early Hiring Principles for assembling an early team: why the team you build is the company you build, and what to actually look for in the first few hires. Read Minds & MachinesMay 2026 Collective Intelligence Building CoIntel: an AI operating system designed to extend human thinking rather than replace it, grounded in Heidegger, Weiser, and the Extended Mind hypothesis. Read Meaning & MetaphysicsMay 2026 A Heideggerian Response to the Meaning of Life A synthesis of Heidegger, Plato, and Aristotle on what makes life meaningful: confronting finitude while striving toward the eternal. Read Meaning & MetaphysicsMar 2026 The Intelligible Self Nine questions on identity, purpose, happiness, love, and transcendence, with my best attempts at answers. Read Institutions & ProgressMar 2026 Don't Trust the Experts A draft on why we defer only to experts holding mainstream opinions, and how that dismissal of bold visions is withering definite optimism. Read the draft Meaning & MetaphysicsMar 2026 Evaluating the Soundness of Leibniz's Cosmological Argument for God's Existence A philosophical evaluation of Leibniz's first cause argument, its soundness, and three objections from free will, infinite regress, and quantum physics. Read Economics of AIJan 2026 Universal Small Business (USB) Why a post-AGI world calls for universal entrepreneurship over universal basic income. Read

Minds & MachinesDec 2025 The Third Layer: Human Consciousness in the Age of AI How the continual integration of human and machine intelligence reshapes our sense of agency, self, and consciousness, with an eye toward AI-powered brain-computer interfaces. Read Institutions & ProgressAug 2025 The “Network State” of Higher Education A critique of collapsing institutions and a vision for what comes next. Read